As of 17:00 UTC on June 11, 2024, the technical chart analysis of ADA on the TradingView platform shows that the short-term bullish signal is strengthening. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA: $0.48) and the 200-day SMA ($0.45) on the daily chart have formed a golden cross over the past 72 hours. Historically, this technical pattern predicts a 68% probability of an increase in the next 30 days. The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, within the neutral range but showing an upward slope. Coupled with a 42% increase in trading volume over the past five trading days (averaging 630 million US dollars per day), buying momentum continues to accumulate. The key resistance level of $0.50 was successfully broken through after being tested three times on June 10th, with the intraday maximum fluctuation reaching 7.2%, reflecting that the effectiveness of the breakthrough has been verified by the market. It is worth noting that in the past seven days, the number of ADA technical analysis charts added to TradingView has increased by 30% year-on-year, and the participation of technical traders has significantly improved.
On-chain data and ecological development provide fundamental support. According to a report released by Santiment on June 10th, the number of addresses holding ADA for more than one year reached 3.89 million, accounting for 74.3% of the total circulation, far exceeding the industry average (52%). The proportion of long-term holders (Hodlers) has reached a new high. In terms of project development, Cardano achieved an average of 162 code submissions per day in the first quarter of 2024 (GitHub data), and the TPS of the core scalability solution, the Hydra protocol testnet, exceeded 1,000 transactions per second, representing a 400% improvement in the basic performance of the mainnet. The total value locked (TVL) of the ecosystem DeFi increased by 33.6% to $467 million in May. Among them, the newly launched DEX platform Minswap V2 captured traffic by 280% in a single week, and the number of user addresses exceeded 300,000. The expansion of the ecosystem is transforming into actual on-chain activity demands.
The changes in positions in the derivatives market indicate an acceleration in long positions. BitMEX perpetual contract data shows that the total open interest of ADA has increased by 46% to $380 million over the past seven days, with long positions accounting for 58%, reaching a three-month high. The funding rate remains positive (average daily +0.012%), indicating that futures traders remain bullish. Coinglass liquidation map analysis indicates that if the price breaks through $0.55, the short liquidation pressure will reach a scale of $58 million, equivalent to a potential buying drive of 9.2% of the 24-hour trading volume. This market structure is often regarded by professional traders as the fuel for technical breakthroughs, prompting many investors to use ada tradingview indicator allocation automation to go long and capture volatile opportunities.
We still need to remain vigilant about macro risks and the competitive landscape. In terms of regulation, although the list of “unregistered securities” mentioned in the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase does not include the ADA, the proposed Digital Asset Market Structure Act by the US Congress in Q3 2024 May change the classification standards for cryptocurrencies (with a 50% probability of affecting the regulatory framework of Altcoin). There is a technical need for a pullback. The Fibonacci retracement tool indicates that the current price is approaching the upper track of the short-term upward channel. In the $0.52- $0.55 range, the sell-side order volume has reached 120% of the average daily trading volume, which may form a resistance band. In the Layer1 race, Solana’s Developer Activity Index (DAA) grew by 82% year-on-year, still higher than Cardano’s 63%, and the competitive pressure within the ecosystem persists. The 30-day volatility index remains at the 30% level. It is recommended that investors configure stop-loss strategies when taking advantage of trend signals (the trigger threshold is suggested to be -5%) to deal with the risk of sudden pullbacks.