The price volatility of xrp usd is caused by numerous driving factors. Data as of 2023 indicates that its 30-day annualized volatility reaches 68% (greater than that of Bitcoin at 52%), primarily because of the triple combined force of law, market, and technology. On July 13, 2023, the New York Southern District Court ruled that “the programmatic sale of XRP does not constitute a security” (Case No. 1:20-cv-10832), compelling the xrp price usd to skyrocket 75% in a single day to $0.82, but fear of SEC appeal (chance of 68%) Bloomberg Law #BLMF2023Q4) nevertheless compelled prices back down 36.6% from highs. On-chain action reveals the whale Address (with over 10 million XRP) pumped 18 million (circa 8.64 million US dollars) onto its holdings with the support level of 0.48 US dollars, taking up 0.38% of the market’s liquidity at the time and creating short-term buying pressure (source: data Santiment #SANAPI).
Derivatives leverage moved closely with the sentiment of the market. As the probability of Federal Reserve raising interest rates in November 2023 reached 89% (CME FedWatch tool), the US Dollar index (DXY) went up by 0.8% to 106.7, and the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies evaporated by 3.1% in a span of one day. The correlation coefficient between xrp price usd and Bitcoin for 30 days dropped from 0.72 to 0.51, representing the erosion of its safe-haven status. Social media tracking indicates that rumors regarding “Ripple’s overseas asset freeze” on X (formerly Twitter) sent the negative sentiment index (LunarCrush #LUNARCRUSH) plummeting from -0.42 to -1.05, and derivatives open interest fell by 22% (Coinglass #CGDATA). Price amplitude widened to 10.6%.
Technical indicators indicate a war between bulls and bears. The XRP (14th) RSI rebounded from 47.5 to 52.1, and the 4-hour MACD histogram went positive (+0.0003), but there exists a sell wall of 95 million XRP (circa 49.4 million US dollars) at $0.52. On-chain transfer metrics (XRP Scan blockchain browser) show that the Upbit technical malfunction of the South Korean exchange in October 2023 resulted in an outflow boost of 340% (equivalent to 22 million US dollars) for XRP hot wallets, driving the premium level of xrp price usd won from 2.8% to 9.4%. The standard deviation of global spreads rose to 1.2% (the Bank for International Settlements’ benchmark is 0.6%).
Ripple’s Q3 2023 report indicated that RippleNet, its cross-border payments network, processed an average of 230 million US dollars per day (40 countries), but its partner firm MoneyGram’s share price dropped 5.3% (NYSE:MGI), and business growth was a concern. Both influence of regulation as well as use by businesses have led to this. In regard to technological upgrades, the debut of the AMM pool on XRP Ledger has contributed to 12 million US dollars’ worth of weekly on-chain TVL but translates to just 0.43% of market capitalization at circulation and can’t increase xrp price usd significantly. Bloomberg commentators indicated that in the case of the SEC making a formal appeal (55% probability in 30 days), the value will fall to the support area of $0.42- $0.45 (technical analysis #BLOOMBERG20231026). Conversely, in case Ripple and IMF roll out their expanded Middle East pilot program (aiming settlement at $50 million per day), Or pushes the value towards the resistance zone of $0.65 (+25% probable growth).